Study reveals link between unemployment and crime

THE high unemployment rate among the nation's youth has huge implications for crime and violence in Jamaica-- a study by the Jamaica Constabulary Force's Research, Planning and Legal Services Branch ( RPLSB) has revealed.

The 2014 study titled 'Youth Victimisation and Offending in Jamaica: An Analysis of Serious Violent Crimes', which was done by Senior Superintendent Norman Heywood and Deputy Superintendent Michael Lawrence, shows that persons aged 15 to 24 years, account for 19.5 per cent of the total population in Jamaica. Of this percentage, males represent 51 per cent or 268,829 of the 530,393 youth in this age range.
According to the study, 61 per cent of unattached or unemployed youth are between the ages 20 to 24 years and 96 per cent between 17 and 24 years old. The study further disclosed that only 12 per cent of this group was willing or available to work within the next year.

But, alarmingly, the data revealed that 90 per cent of unattached youth outside the labor force had no skills training and approximately 70 per cent had no training or academic qualification and were in need of remedial education.


This, according to the study, has huge implications for crime and violence in Jamaica.
Moreover, the JCF's National Intelligence Bureau gang assessment figures for 2014 reveal that the number of active gangs in Jamaica is distributed among the parishes in a similar pattern to that for the number of unattached youth.

"The assessment shows that Kingston and St Andrew, combined, accounts for 51 per cent of active gangs in the country, followed by St Catherine with 13 per cent, St James, 10 per cent and Clarendon seven per cent. The JCF's crime data show that these five parishes have consistently accounted for upwards of 73 per cent of total murders and shootings in Jamaica over the last decade," Lawrence said, while presenting the findings at the Statistics Symposium last month.

He explained that the 2011 population census indicate that the male youth population is the most pronounced in the parishes of Kingston and St Andrew, St Catherine, Clarendon, St James, and Manchester.
"Youth offending for serious crimes has been increasing for the 15 to 19 years age group over the last three years and declined for the 20 to 24 years sub group in 2013 after experiencing an increase in 2012," he disclosed.

Further findings of the study revealed that being a male in the 20 to 24 years age group is a strong demographic risk factor for criminal victimization and offending.

In relation to unemployment, Lawrence said 60 per cent of the murder victims in 2013 aged between 15 and 24 years, and were either unemployed or unskilled laborers.

Likewise, over the last three years, 60 per cent of murder perpetrators were between 15 to 24 years and were unemployed.

The aim of the study was to uncover policy relevant characteristics of victims and perpetrators of violent crimes in Jamaica, to determine those most at risk of offending or being victimized.

HIGHER CRIME RATE LINKED TO LOW WAGES AND UNEMPLOYMENT, STUDY FINDS

"Low-skilled workers are clearly the most affected by the changes in labor opportunities, and these results remain after controlling for a wealth of personal and family characteristics,"

A new study provides some of the best evidence to date that low wages and unemployment make less-educated men more likely to turn to crime.

Researchers examined national crime rates between 1979 and 1997 and found much of the increase in crime during that period can be explained by falling wages and rising unemployment among men without college educations.

"Clearly, the long-term trend in wages was the dominant factor on crime during this period," Weinberg said.

While politicians have focused on crime-fighting initiatives as central to controlling crime, this study shows that the impact of labor markets should not be overlooked, said Bruce Weinberg, co-author of the study and associate professor of economics at Ohio State University.

"Public officials can put more cops on the beat, pass tougher sentencing laws, and take other steps to reduce crime, but there are limits to how much these can do." "We found that a bad labor market has a profound impact on the crime rates."

Weinberg conducted the study with Eric Gould of Hebrew University and David Mustard of the University of Georgia. Their results appear in the current issue of The Review of Economics and Statistics.

From 1979 to 1997, federal statistics show the inflation-adjusted wages of men without a college education fell by 20 percent. Despite declines after 1993, the property and violent crime rates (adjusted for changes in the country's demographics) increased by 21 percent and 35 percent respectively during that period.

Weinberg said the strongest finding in this new study is a link between falling wages and property crimes such as burglary. However, the study also found a link between wages and some violent crimes - such as assault and robbery - in which money is often a motive.

The weakest relationship occurred with murder and rape - two crimes in which monetary gain is not usually a motive.

"The fact that murder and rape didn't have much of a connection with wages and unemployment provides good evidence that many criminals are motivated by poor economic conditions to turn to crime."

The theory behind why crime increases in the wake of falling wages is simple, he said. "A decline in wages increases the relative payoff of criminal activity. It seems obvious that economic conditions should have an impact on crime, but few studies have systematically studied the issue."

National crime rates rose from 1979 to 1992, when wages for less skilled men were falling. Crime declined from 1993 to 1997. This decline in crime corresponded to a leveling off and slight increase in the wages of unskilled workers across the nation in that period, Weinberg said.

Weinberg and his colleagues did several analyses to examine the connection between wages, unemployment and crime between 1979 and 1997 for men without college educations. In one analysis, they looked at crime rates in 705 counties across the country - all counties with populations greater than 25,000 - and compared them with state wages and unemployment rates. The second analysis focused on statistics from 198 metropolitan areas as defined by the U.S. Census. The researchers took into account factors such as arrest rates and number of police that may have also influenced crime rates.

In the first analysis, the researchers calculated that the 20 percent fall in the wages of non-college-educated men over the entire period can account for a 10.8 percent increase in property crime and a 21.6 percent increase in violent crime.

"Wage declines are responsible for more than half of the long term increase in both property and violent crime."

Overall, wages had a larger effect on crime than did the unemployment rate, according to Weinberg. That's because the unemployment rate is cyclical and there is no strong long-term trend. Wages, however, fell steadily during most of the period studied.

"Clearly, the long-term trend in wages was the dominant factor on crime during this period."

In a third analysis, the researchers examined data from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to see if the criminal behavior of the young men who participated in the survey could be linked to economic conditions where they lived. This survey asked participants if they had taken part in crimes such as shoplifting and robbery in the previous year.

As expected, economic conditions had no effect on the criminal activity for the more highly educated workers in the sample.

However, among less educated men, lower wages and higher unemployment rates in the states where they lived made it more likely that they had participated in crimes. This was true even after the researchers took into account factors such as cognitive ability and family background.

Identifying the Effect of Unemployment on Crime

Policies designed to increase jobs in inner city areas can have a direct, positive effect on crime rates. A new study of crime across the United States shows that crime rates rise and fall with unemployment. But this truth is obscured by other factors. A Discussion Paper published for the Center for Economic Policy Research by two economists, Steven Raphael of the University of California at San Diego and Rudolf Winter-Ember of the University of Linz, finds support for the view held by most people that when men are out of a job they are more likely to steal because the risks seem more worthwhile. The writers find a significant positive, but also quantitatively large, impact of unemployment on several crime categories.

Much research up to now has concluded that violent crime, as opposed to burglary and theft, is pro-cyclical,

or higher in good times. This aggregate picture can arise if other crime-driving influences are disregarded. One prime candidate is alcohol consumption, which is higher in good times, but on the other hand is a hefty determinant of

all sorts of crime rates. And there are other ‘omitted variables’ that have to be taken into account when analyzing

overall crime figures. One is the interaction between crime and joblessness, for the former can also cause the latter.

This is a result of what the authors call the ‘scarring effects effect of incarceration or a greater reluctance among the criminally initiated to accept legitimate employment…’   When the authors properly take care of these statistical problems, they find a positive impact of unemployment on property crime as well as violent crime.

The statistics used for the study are taken from the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports across the US from 1970 to 1993. They are then broken down according to types of crime and adjusted for poverty and demographic components. The authors note that in a later period, 1992 to 1996, a period when unemployment was falling, there was a dramatic fall in all types of crime. So the two economists argue that a drop of two percentage points in unemployment would mean a 9% decline in burglary, 14% in rape and robbery and 30% in assault.

Had unemployment been one percentage point in higher in 1992, there would have been nearly 500,000 more crimes in the United States. The authors conclude that if there were improved job prospects for jobless workers, particularly in inner cities, further declines in crime rates would be achieved.

hallucinogenic drink served in ITALY

The subject of local legends, this mysterious ruby-coloured cocktail is known for its high alcohol content, obscure ingredients and hallucinogenic effects.

During the day, the two iron portcullises at number 10 Via Fratelli Calandra are tightly closed. There are no signs, and the graffiti that lines this quiet road in Turin, Italy seems to indicate a general state of abandon. But after 10 pm (every night but Mondays), two small lanterns turn on, and one of the shutters rises – the only signal that Tamango pub is open.

It’s ironic, perhaps, that this bar – home to a strange ruby-coloured cocktail called Tamango that’s thought to have hallucinogenic effects – sits so close to Palazzo Nuovo, one of the main buildings at the University of Turin. You can essentially walk from the centre of reason and logic to something more resembling the crazy world of Alice in Wonderland in a matter of minutes. As such, students – and nightlife goers – tell many stories about the mysterious drink that’s often described as Italy’s answer to absinthe.

    She jumped out of a moving car in search of a fountain, fell asleep under its stream of water and later escaped from a hospital in a wheelchair.

Twenty-eight year-old Andrea Lavalle recalled spending two hours running after a dog in the park after drinking more than one. And Tullia Pertusio said when she last had Tamango more than 10 years ago (during a night when she drank three) she jumped out of a moving car in search of a fountain, fell asleep under its stream of water and later escaped from a hospital in a wheelchair.


As a student at the university several years ago, I heard tales of a guy dancing on a rooftop after having just a few Tamangos. But when I tried the drink, which gave me a burning sensation from my throat down to my stomach, I didn’t finish even half the glass. Ever since, I’ve had unfinished business with the cocktail, so I paid Tamango pub a visit on a recent trip to Turin.


The bar was very small, with just a handful of small tables and a few extra seats around the counter. The low lights and scent of burning incense evoked the mystical nature of the Tamango drink, which was named after the slave who rose up against his owner in the 1829 novel Tamango by French author Prosper Mérimée (which was later made into a 1958 film by American director John Berry). However, among students, the concoction is better known for its high alcohol content, obscure ingredients and powerful after effects.

“Tamango is made with a mix of plant and root spirits and infusions,” revealed Elena Di Lorenzo, who created the cocktail and opened the pub 36 years ago with her late husband, Bosco. “After travelling around the world, we discovered different plants and roots that were used inside drinks to cheer up weddings, funerals and other events. Each plant or root has a different effect or purpose.” Tamango, prepared with a mix of African plants and roots, gets its red colour from roselle leaves (a species of hibiscus), which, according to Di Lorenzo, prompts a sense of euphoria and a desire to dance.

“In theory, you should drink half of it in one shot and later sip it,” she said. “It is not hallucinogenic, though. This alleged effect depends on how your body reacts to it. It is also not made with pure alcohol – that would make it too simple.” As her bartender started to prepare Tamangos for me and my friend Rafael, Di Lorenzo winked at me and smiled. “I can’t tell you more than this, the secret is part of our story.”

    Rafael had suddenly started to speak in German, and half of a few Chinese students – who dared ordering more than one – were already sleeping on the tables.

Our drinks, served with ice and a lemon wedge, arrived in plastic cups. At first sniff, my Tamango smelled like gasoline. And with just one sip, my throat started to burn as if it were on fire, just like it did years ago. After half a cup of the cocktail, I started to feel my hands getting warmer, and a tingle climbed up my arms. However, this time, I managed to finish it – in two hours and 30 minutes.

At that point, I was done – but others at the pub were in worse shape. Rafael had suddenly started to speak in German, and half of a few Chinese students – who dared ordering more than one – were already sleeping on the tables.

Despite being 85% alcohol, Tamango is not the pub’s strongest drink. Its “bigger brother” Devasto (which means “devastate”) has slightly more. Turns out, all of Tamango pub’s cocktails have to be drunk with respect and humility. If you dare to challenge them with arrogance, you’ll pay the price.

“If you didn’t get beat up as a child, don’t worry,” said Rafael, still speaking in German. “Tamango will do it when you’re an adult.”

SCARY EXPERIENCE IN THE HOTEL ROOM IN INDIA

That was the year OF  1999, if am not wrong. I had been visited Mumbai, accompanied by my parents. There we booked a hotel room, which was totally sea side. But we couldn't think even in dream that our tour would be turned into a nightmare, very soon. We noticed that hotel manager hesitated for a while to handover the key of that room to us.
 The whole day we spent in sea beach and enjoyed lots of fun. In evening after shopping we reached at our hotel then it was 10 pm. After returning back I entered into bathroom and while standing in front of the mirror, I could see my back, then I saw an apparition moved very fast from one side to another. I turned back abruptly then it was vanished. I thought that was my mistake, so I didn't care it.

At night my dad's scream made us to wake up. We saw that my father was shivering with fear. We asked him very eagerly "what happened?" After sometimes he told us that he was bad dreaming. A horrible looking woman was trying to throttle him and asking him in angry voice "Tell me, where is my husband? Otherwise I'll kill you".
We assured my father that it was just dream. We were trying to console him suddenly a glass, which was at the center of the table, moved along at the corner, falled down and crashed. That incident was really surprising, we all were shocked at that. Myself and my mother were discussing about that mysterious incident, suddenly my father became very ferocious and tried to throttle both of us. Ohh God, we still couldn't forget that picture of that moment. My father's voice turned into female voice and his face was just pale. He was crying - "Tell me, tell me, where is my husband? He had killed me here, I want justice. Yes, I want justice. Tell me, where is my husband?"
 We were shouting and tried to escape from him. At that moment hotel boys and Manager came soon there and they caught up him. We also saved.As we came out of the room, my father also became normal. Later we had known from hotel manager that 5 months ago a couple had booked that room. Next morning the woman was found dead inside of the room and her husband was missing. After that, before our coming, one family had booked that room, but couldn't spend a single night.

Expectations of parents are a burden on their kids

Expectations is a word that attaches right from the inception of a child, in the initial days of life, expectations of learning good manners and being a respected person, in the schooling days of studying hard and choosing the correct friends and peers, in the college days of choosing an appropriate line and settling down in life and so on till we die we are always surrounded by some or the other expectations.

Due to immense competition in the world to be a successful person, the parents are burdening the child with immense pressure without thinking; will the child be able to take that much pressure? Are they capable of what the parents are expecting out of them? The second main reason for increasing pressure from the parents is, initial people used to stay in joint families and did not have that much time to focus only on the child, but now with nuclear families being in the vogue, parents have more time to concentrate on their child and want their child to excel in each and everything. A lot of parents also try to impose their unfulfilled dreams onto their child which may or may not be accepted by the child; especially this is faced by parents who have only one kid.

There are numerous parents that I have met who are never satisfied with their children’s performance, no matter how well do they perform, how many accolades they win they are never happy; these kind of parents are always building unknowingly a negative pressure on the child and burden them with unrealistic expectations leading to de-motivation amongst the children. We all look for appreciation and when one does not receive any kind of appreciation you get demotivated to do things or study properly. For example, even if a child gets 90% in his studies the parent would say why dint you get 95% and so on.

Ability and outcome are the two kind of expectation imposed by parents on the child. When a child is expected to perform just because he is naturally gifted with that talent, for example, “you should have won the swimming completion because you are a natural swimmer and you are the best, you have always won all the competitions.” The delinquency with ability expectations is that children develop an attitude that they are top achiever in a particular field as they have the ability but are unable to accept failure.

When a child is over stressed with expectation he may become detached from the parents, may isolate himself, stop performing as per his previous records or may take any extreme action like suicidal attempts or leave the house and run away from the parents. An incident that I witnessed and would like to cite here, One boy attempted suicide just before his results were out because he assumed that he did not perform well as per his parents expectation and might flunk in one of the subjects he committed suicide and died; when the results were out he had not only passed in all the papers but had topped in his school. When parents over burden the children with their expectation or do not praise the child for whatever achievement he has made uptil now, children often have started taking serious actions.

Hence, expectations are natural, every parent has some or the other expectation from their children, but do not over burden them with your expectation. Recognise their ability and interests and let them perform on their own. Try to identify the signs that your child is overburdened and over stressed and take an action immediately to soothe him and start a fresh to teach your child.

Parental Expectations for Their Children’s Academic Attainment

"Less than half of parents with annual incomes of less than $30,000 expect their child will attain a four-year-college degree, compared with nearly eight in ten parents with incomes over $75,000."

Importance

Expectations parents have for their children’s school attainment influence their children’s expectations and achievement, and early expectations tend to persist throughout the child’s school years. Research has shown that parental expectations for children’s academic achievement predict educational outcomes more than do other measures of parental involvement, such as attending school events.

Parents’ expectations influence child outcomes through multiple pathways. Parental expectations are more likely to affect their children when parent-child relationships are characterized by closeness and warmth. Parental expectations directly affect the amount of parent-child communication about school. In addition, families with high educational aspirations for their children provide more out-of-school learning opportunities for them. Students who reported their parents expected them to attend college had better attendance and more positive attitudes toward school, according to one study. Parental expectations also affect the child’s own aspirations and expectations; for instance, studies suggest that parents’ expectations for their children’s academic attainment have a moderate to strong influence on students’ own goals for post secondary education. Further, both sets of expectations are moderated by characteristics of the parent, child, and community.

Trends

Overall, prior research has indicated that the great majority of parents expect their children to graduate from high school and complete at least some post secondary education. In 2012, about two-thirds of parents with students in grades six through 12 expected their child would attain a bachelor’s degree or higher (64 percent). About one in four (26 percent) expected their child would achieve some post secondary education short of a bachelor’s degree; and about one in ten (ten percent) expected their child would receive a high school diploma or less. Between 2003 and 2007, parents’ expectations rose modestly, but by 2012 they had fallen. Between 2007 and 2012 there was a decrease in the proportion of parents expecting their child to earn a bachelor’s degree or higher (from 70 to 64 percent), an increase in those expecting “some” post secondary education (from 22 to 26 percent), and a small change in the share of parents expecting children to earn a high school diploma or less (from nine to ten percent).

Differences by Gender

Overall, parents have higher academic expectations for girls than they do for boys, and this gender difference becomes apparent as early as sixth grade. In 2012, more than two-thirds (69 percent) of parents of girls expected them to get a bachelor’s degree or higher, compared with six in ten (59 percent) parents of boys. This gender gap grew slightly between 2003 and 2012.

Differences by Race and Hispanic Origin

The proportion of parents with the highest expectations for attainment (bachelor’s degree or more) is greatest among Asian/Pacific Islanders (84 percent in 2012), followed by Hispanics and whites (66 and 63 percent, respectively – not significantly different), and blacks (58 percent). Between 2007 and 2012, parental expectations for attainment at the bachelor’s degree level or above decreased by nine percentage points among whites, by six percentage points among Asian/Pacific Islanders, and by five percentage points among blacks, while they remained the same among Hispanics. 

 

Differences by Household Income Level

Only about half of low-income parents (those with annual incomes of $30,000 or less) expect their children to attain a bachelor’s degree or higher, compared with seven out of nine parents earning $75,000 or more. Likewise, ow-income parents are more than three times as likely as the wealthiest parents to expect their child to do no more than finish high school (19 and 6 percent, respectively). When broken down by parents’ own level of education, parental expectations follow a similar pattern.

Differences by Immigrant Status

Compared with U.S.-born parents, immigrant parents have higher expectations for their children’s educational attainment. Among immigrant parents, 72 percent of those with native-born children, and 73 percent of those with foreign-born children, expect their child to earn a bachelor’s degree or higher. Among native-born parents with native-born children, the comparable figure is 61 percent.

Differences by Student's Grade Level

Parents’ educational expectations for their child are conditioned in part by the level of schooling the child has already attained. Parental expectations that a child will get a bachelor’s degree or higher decline with the child’s age, while expectations that a child will receive only some post-secondary education rises. Sixty-seven percent of parents of sixth- through eighth-graders have expectations of a bachelor’s-degree-or-higher for their child, compared with 62 percent of parents of ninth- through twelfth-graders).

Differences by Student's Current Grades

Not surprisingly, parents’ expectations for their child’s academic future are related to their perception of his or her current performance in school. Eighty-four percent of parents who said that their children are currently earning “mostly As” have expectations that they will earn a bachelor’s degree or more, compared with 12 percent of parents who said their children earn “mostly Ds and Fs.” Only three percent with parents whose children are in the “mostly As” group expect their child will get no more than a high school diploma, whereas 55 percent with children in the “mostly Ds and Fs” group have this expectation.

Differences by Number of Activities Parents and Child Share

Parents who are more involved in their children’s lives, as measured by the number of shared activities, are more likely to hold higher expectations for their child’s education. Visiting a library together, attending a concert or play, visiting an art gallery, museum, or historical site, or going together to a zoo or aquarium were listed as the kinds of activities parents and children might have shared in the past month. Among parents who counted three or four such activities, 74 percent expected their child to achieve a bachelor’s degree or higher, compared with 57 percent among parents who did not share any such activities with their child in the past month. More striking, only between seven and nine percent of parents who shared at least one activity with their child expected that they would not attain more than a high school diploma, compared with 12 percent of parents who shared no activities in the past month.